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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to MIA 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model