Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.260 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Josh Allen (BUF): +0.196 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- NYJ defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- NYJ offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- BUF defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
NYJ
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:14 TD BUF (8:14) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 6
- Q2 02:34 SAF BUF (2:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (57-A.Epenesa). NYJ 0 – BUF 9
- Q2 00:02 FG BUF (:02) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. NYJ 0 – BUF 12
- Q3 05:19 TD BUF (5:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 18-A.Cooper for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 18
- Q3 01:17 TD BUF (1:17) (No Huddle) 4-J.Cook left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 25
- Q3 00:21 TD BUF (:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-94-S.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced between downs. NYJ 0 – BUF 32
- Q4 12:48 TD BUF (12:48) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 80-T.Shavers for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 39
- Q4 07:04 TD NYJ (7:04) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – BUF 40
- Q4 02:00 TD NYJ (2:00) 2-T.Taylor pass deep right to 83-T.Conklin for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 14 – BUF 40
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 86%
(2:18) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen up the middle to BUF 24 for no gain (50-G.Rousseau).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 12 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(13:17) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to NYJ 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 26 for 12 yards (85-Q.Morris; 69-R.Ferguson).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 38%
(3:25) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to NYJ 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-39-C.Lewis.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 89%
(:02) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 44%
(11:41) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to BUF 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-39-J.Monroe.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 93Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 60%
(10:06) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to NYJ 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson to BUF 45 for 13 yards (48-E.Ulofoshio).
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(3:19) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to BUF 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington to NYJ 42 for 25 yards (0-B.Allen). PENALTY on NYJ-39-J.Monroe, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 42.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(14:26) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to BUF 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 35 for 7 yards (32-I.Davis).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 45 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 36%
(4:48) 22-R.Davis up the middle to NYJ 42 for 3 yards (36-C.Clark). ** Injury Update: BUF-70-A.Anderson has returned to the game.