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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 42

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 12

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to BUF 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-39-J.Monroe.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model