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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 93

Buffalo Bills 12 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to NYJ 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson to BUF 45 for 13 yards (48-E.Ulofoshio).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.16 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 93, worth -5.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.74 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP