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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to NYJ 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-39-C.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP