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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 9 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:02) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.73 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model