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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2024-12-29 · 16:25 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

GB
50.8%
MIN
49.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Sam Darnold (MIN) +0.116 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.170 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 25
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

GB

Jaire Alexander CB Out Knee
Andre Dillard T Out nan
Quay Walker LB Out Ankle
Evan Williams S Out Quadricep
Christian Watson WR Questionable Knee
Javon Bullard S Questionable Ankle
Ty'Ron Hopper LB Questionable Ankle

MIN

Fabian Moreau CB Out Hip
Ivan Pace LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 25
–
MIN 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:50 FG GB (1:50) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – MIN 0
  • Q2 11:58 TD MIN (11:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 83-J.Nailor for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – MIN 6
  • Q2 02:19 FG MIN (2:19) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. GB 3 – MIN 10
  • Q2 00:00 FG MIN (:00) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. GB 3 – MIN 13
  • Q3 09:50 TD MIN (9:50) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – MIN 19
  • Q3 05:11 TD GB (5:11) (No Huddle) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – MIN 20
  • Q3 00:57 TD MIN (:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 27-C.Akers for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – MIN 26
  • Q4 06:15 TD GB (6:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-Em.Wilson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – MIN 27
  • Q4 02:20 TD GB (2:20) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass short left to 18-M.Heath for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. GB 24 – MIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 49%

    (9:29) 17-R.Wright punts 30 yards to GB 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:07) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to MIN 35, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 64%

    (6:07) 16-W.Reichard 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (1:50) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 90%

    (7:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (2:19) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:26) 19-D.Whelan punts 49 yards to MIN 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 16. 4-B.Powell to MIN 16 for no gain (55-K.Enagbare).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 29 yards to MIN 30, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 16 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 88%

    (9:22) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:43) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to GB 38, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.