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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 85

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to MIN 35, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.56 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model