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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 29 yards to MIN 30, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model