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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 17-R.Wright punts 30 yards to GB 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.68 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model