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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 19-D.Whelan punts 49 yards to MIN 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 16. 4-B.Powell to MIN 16 for no gain (55-K.Enagbare).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model