Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BAL offense: +0.200 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to BAL: Tommy DeVito (NYG) -0.198 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.366 EPA/dropback
- NYG offense: -0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- NYG defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- BAL on 7 more days rest than NYG
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
BAL
NYG
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:23 TD BAL (3:23) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – NYG 0
- Q2 11:03 TD BAL (11:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – NYG 0
- Q2 02:19 TD NYG (2:19) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 14 – NYG 6
- Q2 00:36 TD BAL (:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – NYG 7
- Q3 04:07 TD BAL (4:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 81-D.Walker for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – NYG 7
- Q4 10:53 TD BAL (10:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 43-J.Hill for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 34 – NYG 7
- Q4 06:41 TD NYG (6:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 35 – NYG 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 61%
(12:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to BAL 29, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 35-D.King.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 46%
(8:28) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to NYG 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(6:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to BAL 45, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 35-D.King to NYG 33 for 22 yards (24-D.Belton).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 79%
(13:51) (No Huddle) 15-T.DeVito up the middle to BAL 30 for no gain (29-A.Washington; 40-M.Harrison).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 77%
(5:22) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to BAL 29 for 2 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
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Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 46%
(10:46) 6-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to BAL 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 35-D.King.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(9:29) (Shotgun) 75-J.Ezeudu and 63-J.Kubas reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 29-T.Tracy. 29-T.Tracy up the middle to NYG 41 for 2 yards (98-T.Jones).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 89%
(6:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 68 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(4:01) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to NYG 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette. PENALTY on NYG-43-R.Layne, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at NYG 18.