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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 35 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to NYG 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette. PENALTY on NYG-43-R.Layne, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at NYG 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.80 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 26, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model