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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 2

New York Giants 7 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 2, worth +0.68 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model