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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 44

New York Giants 7 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 6-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to BAL 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 35-D.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.46 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model