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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to NYG 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.58 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP