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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2024-12-08 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NYJ
28.5%
MIA
71.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.137 vs Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) -0.014 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIA on 3 more days rest than NYJ

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19
–
MIA 25
Projected margin: MIA by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NYJ

C.J. Mosley LB Out Neck
Ahmad Gardner CB Doubtful Hamstring
Breece Hall RB Doubtful Knee
Qwan'tez Stiggers CB Questionable Illness
Olu Fashanu T Questionable Toe
Morgan Moses T Questionable Knee
Xavier Newman-Johnson G Questionable Groin
Alijah Vera-Tucker G Questionable Ankle

MIA

Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Blake Ferguson LS Questionable Illness
Anthony Walker LB Questionable Hamstring
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Knee
Cameron Goode LB Questionable Knee
Kader Kohou CB Questionable Back
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 26
–
MIA 32

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:29 TD MIA (10:29) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – MIA 6
  • Q1 05:23 FG NYJ (5:23) 18-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NYJ 3 – MIA 6
  • Q2 14:57 FG MIA (14:57) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NYJ 3 – MIA 9
  • Q2 12:02 TD NYJ (12:02) 32-I.Davis left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – MIA 9
  • Q2 05:00 FG MIA (5:00) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NYJ 10 – MIA 12
  • Q2 00:52 FG NYJ (:52) 18-A.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NYJ 13 – MIA 12
  • Q2 00:06 FG MIA (:06) 7-J.Sanders 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NYJ 13 – MIA 15
  • Q3 11:24 TD NYJ (11:24) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 19 – MIA 15
  • Q3 01:06 FG NYJ (1:06) 18-A.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NYJ 23 – MIA 15
  • Q4 09:09 TD MIA (9:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 23 – MIA 21
  • Q4 00:56 FG NYJ (:56) 18-A.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NYJ 26 – MIA 23
  • Q4 00:12 FG MIA (:12) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NYJ 26 – MIA 26
  • Q5 06:11 TD MIA (6:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 26 – MIA 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 97%

    (5:23) 18-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 90%

    (14:57) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 22%

    (12:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to MIA 17 for 35 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [93-C.Campbell]. MIA-44-C.Robinson was injured during the play.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 93%

    (7:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to NYJ 12 for 5 yards (36-C.Clark).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (5:00) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (:52) 18-A.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 93%

    (12:05) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 32-I.Davis pushed ob at MIA 3 for 15 yards (6-A.Walker).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 31%

    (9:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (1:06) 18-A.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:42) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to NYJ 17, Center-46-Z.Triner. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 17 for no gain (33-S.Neal).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:33) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to MIA 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds. NYJ-19-I.Charles was injured during the play.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (9:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:44) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to MIA 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 83-M.Washington to MIA 22 for 10 yards (21-A.Davis; 52-S.Eguavoen).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:34) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-Z.Triner. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 13 for no gain (33-S.Neal).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (:56) 18-A.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 68%

    (:12) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.