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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 52

New York Jets 3 – Miami Dolphins 9

What Actually Happened

(12:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to MIA 17 for 35 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [93-C.Campbell]. MIA-44-C.Robinson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.66 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -2.02 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model