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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 17

Miami Dolphins 9 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(7:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to NYJ 12 for 5 yards (36-C.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.05 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model