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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 15 – New York Jets 23

What Actually Happened

(:42) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to NYJ 17, Center-46-Z.Triner. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 17 for no gain (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.04 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model