4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 21

Miami Dolphins 6 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.65 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP