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Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2024-12-08 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 14.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CAR
18.8%
PHI
81.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.176 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CAR): -0.085 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR defense: +0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

CAR 15
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 11 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CAR

Jalen Coker WR Doubtful Quadricep
Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Knee
Nick Scott S Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Caleb Farley CB Questionable Shoulder
Robert Hunt G Questionable Back
Ja'Tavion Sanders TE Questionable Neck
D.J. Wonnum LB Questionable Knee
Josey Jewell LB Questionable Hamstring

PHI

Reed Blankenship S Out Concussion
Sydney Brown S Out Knee
Dallas Goedert TE Out Knee
Britain Covey WR Out Neck

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 16
–
PHI 22

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:13 FG CAR (1:13) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 11:52 TD PHI (11:52) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – PHI 6
  • Q2 04:04 TD CAR (4:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – PHI 7
  • Q2 00:18 TD PHI (:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – PHI 13
  • Q3 02:52 TD CAR (2:52) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – PHI 14
  • Q4 13:50 TD PHI (13:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 81-G.Calcaterra for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – PHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:25) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to PHI 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 25 for 2 yards (53-C.Cherelus).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 18 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:35) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to CAR 23, Center-49-R.Lovato. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 24 for 1 yard (22-K.Ringo).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:24) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to PHI 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:12) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-49-R.Lovato. 13-D.Thompkins to PHI 47 for 15 yards (28-W.Shipley; 47-C.Uzomah).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (1:13) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (4:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:05) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-42-O.Burks.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 65%

    (10:47) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 96%

    (4:59) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to PHI 5 for 6 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson; 17-N.Dean).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 81%

    (8:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 17-X.Legette.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 46%

    (3:05) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to CAR 3, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-29-A.Maddox.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 21%

    (1:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to PHI 38 for 13 yards (36-T.McCollum) [3-N.Smith].

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 57%

    (:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen (2-D.Slay) [53-Z.Baun]. PENALTY on CAR-79-I.Ekwonu, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 37.