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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-42-O.Burks.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.71 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model