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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.03 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP