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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to PHI 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 25 for 2 yards (53-C.Cherelus).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 26, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model