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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen (2-D.Slay) [53-Z.Baun]. PENALTY on CAR-79-I.Ekwonu, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 37.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.00 EP