Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- MIN defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
ATL
MIN
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:01 TD ATL (9:01) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – MIN 0
- Q1 00:46 TD MIN (:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – MIN 6
- Q2 02:05 TD MIN (2:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-T.Andersen]. ATL 7 – MIN 13
- Q2 00:13 FG ATL (:13) 6-Y.Koo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 10 – MIN 14
- Q3 05:09 FG ATL (5:09) 6-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 13 – MIN 14
- Q3 03:36 TD MIN (3:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – MIN 20
- Q3 00:43 TD ATL (:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 19 – MIN 21
- Q4 13:04 TD MIN (13:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 21 – MIN 27
- Q4 08:28 TD MIN (8:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 21 – MIN 34
- Q4 03:43 TD MIN (3:43) 33-A.Jones right guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 21 – MIN 41
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 8Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(9:41) (No Huddle) 7-B.Robinson left guard to MIN 6 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy; 44-J.Metellus).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 66%
(1:32) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 34-R.McCloud.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 61%
(11:52) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 29%
(6:26) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(:13) 6-Y.Koo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 83%
(10:01) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(5:09) 6-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 13 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%
(:48) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 8-K.Pitts.