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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 5 at the 38
Atlanta Falcons 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0
What Actually Happened
(1:32) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 34-R.McCloud.
The Three Options
GO
+0.22 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP
KICK
-0.12 EP
- 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
- 34% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT
-0.45 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
