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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 8

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (No Huddle) 7-B.Robinson left guard to MIN 6 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy; 44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model