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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Minnesota Vikings 42

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 8-K.Pitts.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.86 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP