4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model