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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Thursday 2024-11-28 · 12:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CHI
20.5%
DET
79.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.231 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.243 vs Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.107 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: -0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
DET 29
Projected margin: DET by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CHI

Ryan Bates G Out Concussion
Elijah Hicks S Out Ankle

DET

Carlton Davis CB Out Knee
Taylor Decker T Out Knee
Kalif Raymond WR Out Foot
David Montgomery RB Questionable Shoulder
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 20
–
DET 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:10 FG DET (7:10) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. CHI 0 – DET 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD DET (15:00) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DET 9
  • Q2 07:19 FG DET (7:19) 39-J.Bates 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. CHI 0 – DET 13
  • Q2 03:15 FG DET (3:15) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. CHI 0 – DET 16
  • Q3 09:54 TD CHI (9:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – DET 16
  • Q3 02:46 TD DET (2:46) 72-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – DET 22
  • Q4 13:45 TD CHI (13:45) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – DET 23
  • Q4 05:42 TD CHI (5:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 19 – DET 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (7:10) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:35) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to DET 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-M.Alexander MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at DET 10.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:50) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to DET 18, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-M.Alexander ran ob at DET 26 for 8 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (7:19) 39-J.Bates 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:26) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to DET 8, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-M.Alexander to DET 31 for 23 yards (23-R.Johnson).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 78%

    (4:09) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to CHI 30 for 2 yards (52-D.Taylor).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%

    (3:15) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Swift (44-M.Rodriguez).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right. Ball thrown away.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:17) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to CHI 15, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:33) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to DET 39, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-M.Alexander to 50 for 11 yards (30-T.Moore).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 87%

    (8:47) 39-J.Bates 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. ** Injury Update: DET-70-D.Skipper has returned to the game.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (3:42) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to CHI 1, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-30-K.Dorsey.