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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 26

Detroit Lions 23 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 39-J.Bates 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. ** Injury Update: DET-70-D.Skipper has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.46 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP