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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 62

Detroit Lions 23 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to CHI 1, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-30-K.Dorsey.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.42 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP