Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 65

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(5:35) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to DET 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-M.Alexander MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at DET 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.63 EP
55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model