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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 63

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Swift (44-M.Rodriguez).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.71 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model