Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- Brock Purdy (SF): +0.178 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SEA on 7 more days rest than SF
- SEA offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- SEA defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
SEA
SF
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:17 FG SEA (8:17) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – SF 0
- Q1 00:17 TD SF (:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – SF 6
- Q2 08:46 FG SEA (8:46) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 6 – SF 7
- Q3 09:29 FG SF (9:29) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell. SEA 6 – SF 10
- Q3 03:29 TD SEA (3:29) 61-J.Sundell reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 12 – SF 10
- Q4 09:38 TD SF (9:38) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – SF 16
- Q4 00:18 TD SEA (:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 19 – SF 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EPp(convert) 74%
(12:54) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to SEA 22, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 16 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 72%
(8:17) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 26%
(11:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 19 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 63%
(8:46) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to SF 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-J.Cowing to SF 24 for 12 yards (20-J.Love).
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Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%
(9:29) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 33%
(6:21) 9-K.Walker left tackle to SF 46 for 4 yards (6-M.Mustapha; 22-I.Yiadom).
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Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 37 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 66%
(4:01) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard to SF 37 for no gain (27-J.Brown; 53-D.Winters).
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Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 42 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 53%
(2:45) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.