Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 56

Seattle Seahawks 6 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to SF 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-J.Cowing to SF 24 for 12 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.70 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model