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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.66 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model