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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to SEA 22, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.48 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP