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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 9-K.Walker left tackle to SF 46 for 4 yards (6-M.Mustapha; 22-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.47 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model