Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV offense: -0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- MIA offense: -0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- LV on 8 more days rest than MIA
- Gardner Minshew (LV): -0.104 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Wind 16 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
LV
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:50 TD MIA (6:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – MIA 6
- Q1 00:11 FG LV (:11) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – MIA 7
- Q2 06:50 FG MIA (6:50) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey. LV 3 – MIA 10
- Q2 00:48 FG LV (:48) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 6 – MIA 10
- Q3 04:21 TD MIA (4:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – MIA 16
- Q3 01:27 TD LV (1:27) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 12 – MIA 17
- Q4 10:41 TD MIA (10:41) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 12 – MIA 23
- Q4 04:30 TD LV (4:30) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 18 – MIA 24
- Q4 03:28 TD MIA (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 9-J.Smith for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 19 – MIA 30
- Q4 02:00 FG MIA (2:00) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey. LV 19 – MIA 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%
(6:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(:11) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 35%
(12:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to LV 40 for 5 yards (18-J.Jones).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%
(6:50) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(:48) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:11) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to MIA 6, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-M.Washington to MIA 9 for 3 yards (19-D.Turner). PENALTY on MIA-56-Q.Bell, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at MIA 6.
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Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(3:21) (Shotgun) 22-A.Mattison up the middle to LV 45 for 6 yards (4-K.Kohou).
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Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 21%
(7:29) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to MIA 44 for 7 yards (21-J.Poyer; 20-J.Brooks).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 28 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%
(2:00) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.