Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to MIA 6, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-M.Washington to MIA 9 for 3 yards (19-D.Turner). PENALTY on MIA-56-Q.Bell, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at MIA 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.79 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model