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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 12 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to MIA 44 for 7 yards (21-J.Poyer; 20-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model