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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 9

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:11) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 9, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model