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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model