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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NYJ
53.4%
NE
46.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.226 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 23
–
NE 20
Projected margin: NYJ by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYJ

Ashtyn Davis S Out Concussion
Leki Fotu DT Out Knee
Alijah Vera-Tucker G Out Ankle
Tony Adams S Doubtful Hamstring
Allen Lazard WR Doubtful Chest
Kenny Yeboah TE Questionable Abdomen
Morgan Moses T Questionable Knee

NE

Ja'Lynn Polk WR Out Concussion
Layden Robinson G Out Ankle
Brenden Schooler S Questionable Illness
Daniel Ekuale DT Questionable Abdomen
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Michael Jordan G Questionable Ankle
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Ankle
Raekwon McMillan LB Questionable Back
Sidy Sow G Questionable Illness
Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Knee
Keion White DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 22
–
NE 25

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:26 TD NE (5:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 01:27 TD NYJ (1:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – NE 7
  • Q2 09:11 TD NYJ (9:11) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 82-X.Gipson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 12 – NE 7
  • Q3 10:59 TD NE (10:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – NE 13
  • Q3 07:57 FG NYJ (7:57) 9-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NYJ 16 – NE 14
  • Q4 07:36 FG NE (7:36) 13-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NYJ 16 – NE 17
  • Q4 03:00 TD NYJ (3:00) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 22 – NE 17
  • Q4 00:25 TD NE (:25) 62-S.Sow and 72-Z.Thomas reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 22 – NE 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:42) 17-B.Baringer punts 52 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NE 47 for 40 yards (24-D.Pettus). 17-B.Baringer 25th consecutive game with a 50-yd punt, longest active streak in NFL.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 42%

    (11:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to NE 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-M.Jones ran ob at NE 23 for 12 yards (52-S.Eguavoen).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:53) 17-B.Baringer punts 30 yards to NYJ 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 40 for 6 yards (27-M.Dial).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%

    (2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:27) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-M.Jones to NYJ 26 for 62 yards (89-J.Ruckert).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.97 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (7:57) 9-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-M.Jones to NE 9 for -1 yards (26-B.Echols; 19-I.Charles).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:22) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to NYJ 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NE 49 for 18 yards (48-J.Tavai).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 85%

    (12:43) 9-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (7:36) 13-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%

    (:25) 62-S.Sow and 72-Z.Thomas reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.