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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 11

New York Jets 13 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 9-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.29 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.97 EP