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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 64

New York Jets 13 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-M.Jones to NYJ 26 for 62 yards (89-J.Ruckert).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP