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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 26

New York Jets 16 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 9-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.18 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model